A new generation of (African) coup d'états?

This week brought another unlikely political agreement in African politics. Madagascar's ousted president Marc Ravalomanana was granted amnesty from abuse of power allegations and will be allowed to return to Antananarivo. His party will be permitted to participate in elections. scheduled for next year, but he personally will not be involved in the process.

This, in turn, made me wonder whether or not recent coup d'états in Southern and East Africa are characterized by a new pattern. In both Kenya and Zimbabwe post-electoral power struggle and associated violence have resulted in a power-sharing agreements which, despite all odds, continue to operate to this day. Recent reports from the British and the South African Guardians, both printing the same article, here and here, indicate that Zimbabwe's power-sharing government has been quite successful in taking Zimbabwe from its feet. Evidence form Kenya are less optimistic nevertheless it too has rebounded significantly from the months of violence it experienced last year.

History will tell whether these power-sharing deals have been a successful in providing stability and paving the way for a peaceful transition to democracy. One can only speculate that after years of sharing power big men in these countries will learn how to talk to each other and, hence, next elections will be more peaceful. Importantly, however, the international community has been instrumental in brokering deals in Kenya, Zimbabwe and Madagascar indicating that it is more interested the return of peace in these countries rather respecting the outcome of elections. This, in turn, might provide the wrong incentives and may lead to more attempts of 'power grabbing' in other countries as 'if all else fails a power-sharing agreement can be negotiated'.

Another important issue is whether the power-sharing deals will provide check and balances on politicians or whether these politicians will, despite being such bitter rivals, give a blind eye on each other actions. Evidence here is inconclusive as it seems the former is taking place in Zimbabwe and the latter in Kenya.

Despite these shortcomings and uncertainties the power-sharing deals might just provide the right exercise in institutions building through consensus as they break the vicious circle of violent coup d'états that have, for example, recently swept through West Africa. Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Mauritania all had military take overs in the past year and a half. Despite the fact that all these countries have now scheduled elections significant doubts remain about the capabilities of the coup d'états leaders to run free elections and the likelihood of the elected leader to remain in power. Power-sharing agreements, by their very nature, provide more entrenched checks and balances during the electoral process and might therefore be a more sustainable route towards a peaceful transition to democracy.

The emergence of power-sharing agreements in African politics is in itself an interesting phenomenon possibly indicating bigger influence of the international community on African leaders in the globalized world. To my knowledge no such agreement has taken place in the modern history of African States, untill 2007, indicating that some significant changes have taken place. Perhaps, and being quite optimistic here, the risk of international isolation might currently be a more credible threat to African leaders than it has been a decade ago.